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Sunday, June 17, 2012

Preliminary Greek Exit Polls Show Dead Heat Syriza 27-30, ND 27.5-30.5; The Youth Vote Last and Vote Left; Are the Nannycrats Afraid of Democracy?

The question of the day, to which we all know the answer (but I want to ask the question anyway), Are the Nannycrats Afraid of Democracy?

Here is a comment someone posted on the Guardian Greek Election Blog

Condemning the outside interference in the election, Greek blogger Nick Malkoutzis, who is also deputy editor of deputy editor of Kathimerini English Edition, writes that "Europe that has become scared of democracy".

This is the quid pro quo of the loan deals: Greece receives money in return for certain fiscal measures and structural reforms. Nowhere does the agreement dictate how people should vote in a free election.

This hasn't prevented a number of European officials from expressing an opinion about their preferred outcome of Sunday's vote. The latest to do so was Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker. "If the radical left wins – which cannot be ruled out – the consequences for the currency union are unforeseeable," said Juncker, who as head of the Eurogroup also holds an institutional role within the European Union, a role that – theoretically – implies neutrality on such sensitive issues as national elections.

Juncker's comment is in keeping with repeated interventions by Europeans over the last month. Their comments implied a deep disapproval of potential choices by free citizens. This began in February when German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble made the incredible suggestion that Greece should hold off elections and allow the interim government led by Lucas Papademos to stay in power for longer. This revealed a Europe that has become scared of democracy, unable to deal with the uncomfortable realities that it can produce.
Indeed, the nannycrats do not want voters to decide anything. Their first preference is to have the nannycrats (themselves) to decide everything.

Their second preference is to have politicians decide everything. Should actual votes be necessary, the nannycrats promise Armageddon if they do not get what they want, holding repeat elections until they do get what they want.

When politicians do not abide, they are forced out and replaced by technocrats, such as happened in Greece and Italy.


The Youth Vote Last and Vote Left

Here are some comments I selected from the Guardian Election Blog

  • #Greece2012 Pub Issue (opinion poll): Syriza 31-25, ND 30-25, Pasok 15-11, IndGreeks 9-6, DemLeft 9-6, KKE 7-4, GolDawn 7-4, Recreation 3-1
  • #Greece Pollster Stratos Fanaras saying a part of voters-mainly younger people who came to vote in last 2hrs-refused to answer to exit polls
  • Two important data: 1.Youngsters vote last. 2. Youngsters vote for left #Greece2012 #ekloges12
  • SYRIZA 28, ND 27.5, PASOK 13, Dem Left 7.5, Ind Greeks 7.5, GD 5.5, KKE 5.5 Skai TV opinion poll, not exit poll #Greece2012
  • News in from Helena Smith, our correspondent in Athens, on the latest unofficial exit polls being conducted on behalf of political parties ahead of the close of the ballot at 7pm local time (5pm BST). "I have just spoken to a senior cadre in the socialist Pasok party where unofficial polling results are being monitored on a two-hourly basis. The next few hours are crucial as the rush to vote has only just begun among young people," he told me. From now to the close of the election polling stations are likely to be packed."

This looks close, and at least a 50-50 chance for Syriza. I suggest as much as 60-40 if the comment about youth voting left and last is correct.

Greece is destroyed in either case. The question is how fast it will recover. Total default on debt is a great first step, even if the rest of Syriza's policies cannot work.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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